The Snowball And The Avalanche
Live One, Survive The Other
The Snowball, compounding of modest changes
rolling down a gentle imperceptible slope for years
The Avalanche, explosive transformations
crack in a plane of ice covering a mountain peak
It leads to a collapse that changes the valley below
Live the first, survive the second one
The reality of life is its uneven nature.
We love certainty and constancy but that's not real life. What makes the constant change, its gains and losses, and triumph and tragedy, bearable? Growth.
There are two paths.
There is the Snowball, a compounding of modest changes.
This is the relentless cumulative power of compounding of single digit growth rates. It is a snowball picking up mass, rolling down a gentle, imperceptible slope for perhaps decades. The Snowball is slow, cumulative and massive.
This requires habits, good or bad, a regular unexciting routine. It’s practiced without much fanfare. Success is visible only after a considerable amount of travel on this path. Patience, persistence, and time mark the changes.
There is the Avalanche, an explosion of great changes.
It begins as a tiny crack in a pristine plane of white ice covering a mile-high mountain peak. The crack leads to a collapse that changes everything in the valley below. The air is thin, very cold and all seems frozen — even time itself.
Change seems nonexistent. The order of things seems fixed for eternity.
Then a small change, a tiny fracture in the ice, happens but nothing else happens — yet. That fracture is a catalyst for what follows. A serene snow-cap collapses, into a ice and snow juggernaut scraping away everything in its path.
It remakes the landscape. Life's fortunes are rearranged very quickly for those caught in it.
The Avalanche is fast, explosive and massive.
This requires adaptability. It benefits those who can adjust and are resilient. It comes with a lot of noise and narrative afterwards. Success is visible only for those who survived its aftermath.
Both the Snowball and the Avalanche obey the equation of “Force = Mass x Acceleration”.
Force equals mass times acceleration.
Mass is what exists at the beginning. Acceleration is the growth rate and the compounding of that rate. Force is the growth, the change, the experience, or the gain that's been created.
Maybe it’s the thing we want most or the thing we’re most afraid of.
Looking for one, survive the other.
What an interesting take on F = ma!
So, Growth = original state (of 'things') x growth rate.
Then, if m = F/a we should be able to divide growth/growth rate and yield the original state.
And, if a = F/m then the growth rate can be calculated by dividing growth/original state of things.
Avalanches seem to come unexpectedly, right? Unless someone purposefully triggers one to avoid an even larger catastrophe.
Great notes about adaptability and resilience. Those really seem to cement themselves in layers as we humans go through trials. If we take the mountain as an example we go from camp to camp, from trial to trial. We wouldn't be able to master the next trial if we hadn't experienced the previous.
Thank you for sharing this piece.